Historical linguists have been debating for decades about
whether the classical comparative method provides sufficient evidence to
consider Altaic languages as part of a single genetic unity, like Indo-European
and Uralic, or whether the implicit statistical robustness behind regular sound
correspondences is lacking in the case of Altaic. In this paper, I run a
significance test on Swadesh-lists representing Turkish, Mongolian and Manchu to
see if there are regular patterns of phonetic similarities or correspondences
among word-initial phonemes in the basic vocabulary that cannot be expected to
have arisen by chance. The methodology draws on Oswalt (1970), Ringe (1992), Baxter &
Manaster Ramer (2000) and Kessler (2001, 2007).
The results only partially point towards an Altaic family: Mongolian and Manchu
show significant sound correspondences, while Turkish and Mongolian show some
marginally significant phonological similarity, that might however be the consequence of areal
contact. Crucially, Turkish and Manchu do not test positively under any
condition.
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